Thursday, April 14, 2011

Did 2 end today?

All indications are we put a break in the decline today.  TNA gap opened and quickly made the first  HOD early in the morning followed by a 1.50 decline by 7.10 and a subsequent rally to make a second HOD only 2 cents higher than first.  Right there was a clue that the break to decline may be in the offing.  A vicious decline sent TNA from 83.82 to 80.46 by 11.00 am.  A small rally closed out TNA at 50% of the range.  It was quite active day and the range was $3.50.  After 4 days of decline we got first ray of sunlight.  I can not make a complete conclusion that the decline is over.  But if it did the decline has been for 13 points (93 to 80) a 50% counter would put TNA at 87. Anything higher and this decline is for sure over.  We haven't had a good plus day for this OPEX and that is the next event.
This is TNA daily It is still inside the fast channel The bottom of that fast channel is at 75.  However I have not seen too many that stop exactly on the bottom of the channel and take off.  It is either over shooting or under.  You can see that at the high where it was short of the top line.  On time scale we are about 5 days shy compared to the rally from March 09.  This I will wait and get confirmation before going long.  DOMA 77 is another indicator I am watching.
 This is SPX hourly.  There are 3 channels made using the u-line1 thru 4.  SPX seems to touch the bottom of  a channel and moves up and fails near the median line.  There is a clear 1 2 3 4 5 count on the decline which could be C.  The rally from 1249 to 1339 was 90 points.  This decline is 30 points 1339 to 1309.  The ratio is 1/3 which is quite common but slightly less famous than FIB 38%..  While formation of reverse  H&S is not exact it is nearly complete and projects next high at 1430.
My call is for the markets to be up moderately tomorrow.
I am bullish.
Thanks for reading my blog.

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