Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Back in the blog business again

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Once again its all about GS...for the markets..

Markets got slammed early in the morning.  S&P issued a warning that if this rate of debt continues the AAA rating of US debt will have to be reviewed.   They did not lower any rating. But markets interpretation was little different.  SPX was down 25 points a little after 8 and dow was down 240 points.  Classic climax.  The markets slowly rallied to 50% of the range and that is where they closed.  SPX and RUT both made lower low.  RUT's low of 816.5 was close to previous low of 816.07 but spx 1st low was at 1302 and today was 1294.  However 1294 is a significant support
This is my SPX hourly.  1294 is the 50% point of the rally between 1249 and 1339 a very good point to bounce from.  It is also the low of 1 on the decline from 1344.  If my thinking is right today was a major shakeout before we take off.  It is not a good idea call the bottoms in as much as it is bad idea to call tops.  However should we get a signal from MACD hourly and others both personal and statistical I wouldn't hesitate to go long.
 This is my TNA hourly.  The high 93 to low 68 took 42 hours happened 2 sections.  A small top at the end of first 21 hours and a bottom at the end of next 21 hours.  Tomorrow at 7.00 we would have done 21 hours since last low of 79.80.  Todays low of 79.57 qualifies for a double bottom low IMO.  The projected top on that is at 90.  That would be 1.6 times the 79 to 85 rally. 
Bottom line today was a big fake out and we should on our way.  That is what I see.  Should we get a lower there is strong support at 75.  At the same time should spx gp lower than 1249 it will be a new ball game.
Couple things as markets gets wobbly it is not unusual to see new theories of how every one has a predictor of future.  I have to pinch myself and ask if there is one why would someone put it in the open on Internet and once a lot of people know it how can it be a predictor.  They also said  what is good for GM is good for the stock markets.  GM went bankrupt stock market  still is flying high.  These are independent variables and movement of one has little or no effect on the other. If a butterfly flutters in the amazon's it really does not cause a stock market to go up.
Secondly when I find a site making claims that since a statistical indicator did this a second event should happen on the price I always look deeply in the charts and ask how many times did event B occur after event event A occurred.  If I get a 65% then that is a good conclusion.  Because I can still get 1 in 3 right.  See when I win 2 twice and lose once  I still only win net once in 3. Without serious numbers to support it is only a good story.
I am bullish and will be watching lows very intensely.
Thanks for reading my blog.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

All dressed up ..

After making the LOD early in the morning TNA started a steady rally and took it into the into close at the hod of 83.41.  The low was 79.8.  Range was $3.50 and TNA was active.  Closing at the HOD is actually negative.  Based on $RUT we can expect a 5 - 8 point decline some time during the day in $RUT  And at a decline of 6 points on $RUT and I will be going long. MACD; Slow Stoch  ; and % williams got quite strong towards the EOD aand flashed buy signals. 
This is TNA hourly.  I mentioned this 55.9 number which is 100- 1/2 of Syl's 88.2 number and TNA stopped dead on that number at 79.8. That was also the mdian line support from the bottom half of the fast channel.  After a slight pull back from 84 which is 38%;  TNA should rally towards 87 which is 25% point.  The speed and acceleration of the rally would tell if the 3 has started or not.  The hit was 14 points a 50% recovery of 7 points would also put it around 87. 
The initial jobless claims rose.  OK week to week but had it been up we would be celebrating.  1st quarter earnings are coming out.  So far we have had 3 misses.  AA; JPM and GOOG today.  BAC is up early in the morning.  Senate is investigating Goldman.  Here is the small problem if banks report great earnings criticism gets louder that they are gouging if earnings fall the stock falls.  That is a high wire act only the likes of GS can do. With other problems like the debt ceiling;  Libya and Japan major budget cuts it is not hard to see why the market is shaky;
At the same time bull markets are meant to climb the wall of worries.
I am bullish and will be watching to see if any lows are being taken out and that would spell trouble.
Thanks for reading my blog.

Did 2 end today?

All indications are we put a break in the decline today.  TNA gap opened and quickly made the first  HOD early in the morning followed by a 1.50 decline by 7.10 and a subsequent rally to make a second HOD only 2 cents higher than first.  Right there was a clue that the break to decline may be in the offing.  A vicious decline sent TNA from 83.82 to 80.46 by 11.00 am.  A small rally closed out TNA at 50% of the range.  It was quite active day and the range was $3.50.  After 4 days of decline we got first ray of sunlight.  I can not make a complete conclusion that the decline is over.  But if it did the decline has been for 13 points (93 to 80) a 50% counter would put TNA at 87. Anything higher and this decline is for sure over.  We haven't had a good plus day for this OPEX and that is the next event.
This is TNA daily It is still inside the fast channel The bottom of that fast channel is at 75.  However I have not seen too many that stop exactly on the bottom of the channel and take off.  It is either over shooting or under.  You can see that at the high where it was short of the top line.  On time scale we are about 5 days shy compared to the rally from March 09.  This I will wait and get confirmation before going long.  DOMA 77 is another indicator I am watching.
 This is SPX hourly.  There are 3 channels made using the u-line1 thru 4.  SPX seems to touch the bottom of  a channel and moves up and fails near the median line.  There is a clear 1 2 3 4 5 count on the decline which could be C.  The rally from 1249 to 1339 was 90 points.  This decline is 30 points 1339 to 1309.  The ratio is 1/3 which is quite common but slightly less famous than FIB 38%..  While formation of reverse  H&S is not exact it is nearly complete and projects next high at 1430.
My call is for the markets to be up moderately tomorrow.
I am bullish.
Thanks for reading my blog.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Strong 2

RUT made its top at 859 on 4/6 last Wed. and since then it has been down hill.  While RUT was making an all time high SPX was no where close.  It made its high at 1339 and it also has been down and dirty.  We have now declined for 4 days in a row and RUT closed at the modified (close less than LOD +0.5 ) definition of  low of the day  today.  That has very good probability of producing a plus day tomorrow.  Also after 4 down the odds are very low we will get a 5th down day.  The second day of the rally after 4 down days is strongest.  In short I expect tomorrow to be plus and Thursday to be plusser. ( New word ).
  This SPX 15 minute TNA chart since the start of the decline. We haven't had any counter trend rally to the decline.  That also implies some one is in a rush to drop it quick and finish the drop.  Today's first low was at 81.62 and the second at 81.67 which is higher.  Preliminary sign of a bottom.  I expect tomorrow to be an inside day and an attempt to reach the 25% pint at 84.6.  MACD needs to be watched.  I found the three most watched stats MACD; Stoch (slow); RSI work best at shorter time intervals.  2nd and 3rd day of the decline were both DKOD giving the needed thrust to knock TNA from its orbit. 
This is my hourly TNA.  Here I will attempt to quantify a support point.  The 50% point of the rally from 68.77 to 93.59 is at 81.18 (palindrome) the 55.9% point which is (100- 1/2 of 88.2 Syl's number) is at 79.72.  These 2 points offer excellent support. There is also a congruence of median lines (fast and slow channels)  between 79.75 and 81.   I feel good in saying that TNA would find its bottom here if it hasn't already.  I am not changing my count are anything.  TNA has done 1 of 3 we are at the shakeout 2 thats why it has been trying mimic a  devastating decline.  Once this is over the 3 of 3 to the up side should start.  This is earnings season along with opex.  We have had 2 down days  in opex week to buy the calls back cheap and write expensive puts.  Next activity this week will be rally to buy the puts back cheap.  Full moon is on April 18th usually occurs near a top.
My conclusion is a rally is imminent. We will see it as soon it happens.
I am bullish but not blindly and will be watching the indicators keenly.
Thanks for reading my blog

Thursday, April 7, 2011

1 down 2 to go

SPX opened lower made a LH and LL and closed lower.  That is a negative for tomorrow.  SPX made  its HOD little after 7 and LOD in 45 minutes or so.  Rest of the it was bouncing between the 25% and 50% mark never really catching any steam.  It closed near the 50% point.    Range was good 12 ponts.  RUT acted similarly except its closing in the negative was the first after 7 plus days in a row.  That is also negative.
This is SPX hourly.  Looking at this chart I believe we are in the process of making a reverse Head & Shoulder pattern to coincide with the coming 3.  Once the formation is complete in this pull back to 1304 or so if that we should see resumption of a spectacular rally.  Blue channel is indicative of things to come.  But right now we are in a decline and if something dramatic happens and changes the whole structure..Well..  I will keep an eye. 
This is TNA daily.  It got stopped at the median line.   From the start of this rally at 68.77 it has made
1 down 3 up; 1 down 3up; 1 down and 7 up days as its path giving 3 down days and 13 up days.  That  is very good rally.  The pull back to maturity will be shallow and probably not go lower than 86.  Since this is a shake down it has to be fast and quick giving people the impression of a total failures so more shorts pile on and faint-hearted jump out.
I plan to jump with both  feet in.
I am bullish but expect this pull back to be violent.  Thanks for reading my blog

Speed bumps..

SPX gapped up at the open and topped out very early in the morning at 1339 and drifted lower made the bottom a little after 9.  It then rallied slow an steady to close at 50% of the days range.  It made a HH and HL and closed in the positive.  That is positive for the markets.  My focus is all on TNA these days.  It also topped out early at 93.59 and came down to make a low at 10.00 at 90.5 and rallied slowly to close near the half way point.  It is now up for 7 days in a row.  From 7 to 8 days in a row has happened twice before with 100% probability. 
This is TNA hourly.  It met resistance today at the median line.  The way it reacted this afternoon wasn't very bull friendly  The rally had no conviction  This may have ended the 1 of 3. May have. 
This is also TNA hourly and it is Gann angle chart.  Here it is getting returned by the 3x2 line.  This line has acted as resistance many times before.  But the declines have been shallow.  I don't expect the hit which we are clearly due for to be of any big significance.  When the next step is rip roaring rally there is no reason to bring the markets down much and let people hop on to it.  The decline IMO will not be any more than a kiss to the DOMA.
This is my long term TNA daily.  The blue bottom channel is what  TNA has been in.  IMO what I know is only half. The other half is the red channel at the top.  We are currently in the fast darker brown channel.  This is steeper because it is wave 3. I notice that we have done 1 and 2 and may have also completed 1 of 3.  My projection is for TNA to get to 142 by end of November.  It might be higher.  With that kind of a backdrop next decline can't be thought of any more than speed bump.  I plan to be fully bullish and load up. Opportunities  don't come that often for multiplication.
I am bullish and thanks for reading my blog.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

RUT Kite flies high..

Today SPX made a HH and HL and closed in the negative that is negative for the markets.  The decline started around 10.15 at a steady rate and SPX closed barely a point above the last low point.  It was not pretty.  The big story was in Russell.  It made a all time high at 858.05.  Not just a high since the March 2009 but an all time high.  That has very big significance.  In my books there are many more higher highs to come.  I have never seen anything make just one all time high and stop.  RUT closed in the plus for the 6th day in a row.  Last two times it was up for 6 days it went on to be up for 9 days.  From what I know there is always a small pull back after a new high.  After this is over could be couple of days or so I think RUT is getting ready to put on a show.  Fireworks up in the sky type.  
 This is my hourly chart of SPX.  Todays 1337 looks like an double top.  The decline will be limited and to 1319 only.  Other support numbers are 1303; 1300; 1298 ; 1288.  These are a combination of FIB numbers and previous tops.  I do not see this decline going below 1303.  The 50% point is at 1293.  The way it is set up is one can pick a point and find some reason for it to stop.  I will be watching 1319 and 1288.  
This is 2 of decline and next wave would be the 3 of 3 of 3..  Most likely come on the heels of a budget agreement. 
I am very bullish and would position for the next move up.  This decline is very temporary IMVHO. 
Thanks for reading my blog

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Fasten your seat belts... Rocket ride up ..ahead

The range on SPX was 9 points and it made a HH and HL and closed in plus.  All positive signals for tomorrow.  RUT closed in the positive as well.  It had a HH and HL.  It has closed up for 4 days in a row something we don't see too often.  Only 8% of the moves are 4 days or higher in a row.   None the less RUT is only 10 points from the all time high of 856.  I believe it will be taken out. The interpretation of the unemployment percentage was at best medium.  While we saw new highs it wasn't a huge big day.  The reaction was not ice cold not very hot nicely warm. The trend is till positive

This is my hourly chart of SPX.  The final decline we had was a triple top decline or H&S decline from 1332 to 1249.  The red and blue rectangles.  The rally from 1249 is extremely well behaved inside the channel.  I believe it is likely end near 1250 at the right corner of the square at the end of the diagonal. My count is we are already in 3 of 3. having finished 1 at 1344 and 2 at 1249.  This rally from 1249 to 1350 is 1 of 3 and 2 of 3 will be limited to 1320.  

This is Gann angles on the hourly.  This is a short term focus chart but lines up with the daily chart from 666.  1010 low is the 2 and 1010 to 1344 is 1 of 3 and to 1249 is 2 of 3.  This chart is little bit clearer.  The numbers in italics inside blue rounded rectangles are the moves.  This chart even more bullish.  But highlighting  small declines is not the purpose of this chart.  SPX will go and recapture the 3x1 line and it could creep along on it for 150 points.  I will talk about that more as time passes on. 

This is an important chart.  It is daily.  So far SPX is in a clear cut channel.  If the bottom of the slow blue channel is broken at 1200 or so that would be cause to worry other than that it made a low at the bottom of the fast brown channel  I think after a thrust tomorrow or Tuesday we will get a shake out to drop the speculators off and to give the bears something to cheer about .  And then there will be ignition and we will take off.  There is a distinct probability that there will be panic buying coming very soon.  I do have a calculation that shows 1605 by Oct 23rd. 
All said I am very bullish and can't wait for a pull back to buy.  This is just like July of 2008 in Reverse.
This IMO is the time to get the multiples up and not lose money speculating on the declines.  
Thanks for reading my blog.