Monday, March 7, 2011

A lot happened with zero result..

This is a  week where a lot happened but in the end SPX was back at neutral.  SPX started the week at 1320 and ended at 1321.  Friday was interesting inthe sense it waited almost till 12.30 before a short covering rally took the SPX to 50% of days range  and took most by surprise. Also the SPX is still at 50% point for the decline from 1344 to 1294.  The SPX top was on 2/18 and we have traded for 10 days since and lost 25 points.  That is 2.5 points a day not really a big impulsive decline. The chart itself is beginning to look like an ascending triangle with a flat top.  The rule is go with the direction of break.  
I have witnessed often times  the first move in the short lived minute charts is the false move. Meaning if the wedge break lower SPX goes up.  
This is FAS hourly chart.  I am of the opinion the banking sector is struggling.  FAS has not made a higher high and it is very close to take out all the lows.  Those are not at all bullish signs.  In contrast if one were to see the rally phase blue circles we see higher highs all the time.  Also it hit the exact point on the top line of the channel.  Since  only half the story is visible IMO it is headed to 21.5 and as is shown in the next chart it may eventually hit 12.  The parallelogram formed very symmetrically without much tweaking and as the other indices start making lower lows  FAS is likely to accelerate.  If I trust my ears no one really no one is talking about a crisis in the banking sector.  All the talk is about Libya ,oil and gas prices ; cooked up unemployment numbers; gold ; future inflation and budget.  Should the FED show signs of stopping QEs banking will be the first to get hurt.  Contrary to what one hears houses are not flying and banks are not lending.  I am very bearish on banking and FAS.  
I am bearish
Thanks for reading my blog.

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