Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Drops and Rallies.

Today was a different form of cloud walk day.  SPX started low but very quickly became positive and the market took off and never looked back.  SPX made a LH and HL and closed in the positive It was an inside day.  Generally it is the closing that matters the most on inside days and as such it is positive for the markets for tomorrow. It closed above Friday's close.   Tomorrow is 2 year anniversary of the low 666.79 on March 9th 2009.  IMO it would be gr8 conversation topic if SPX were to top at 1333.6 twice 666.79 in 2 years.  Sounds cool to me. 
This is my TNA hourly chart.  Its in ability to break even the simplest support lines is worrisome.  It is still inside the faster channel.  It has touched the bottom 3 times but no cigar.  It got stopped by the median line today.  It won't be long before it gets resolved one way or the other.  Each of the lows is slightly higher but the highs are not.  That is beginning to look like an ascending triangle and that usually breaks higher.  If I  am sounding a bit more bullish that is because I am.  There is no evidence in any indicator that we are going down barring speculation on world events.  The market is being driven by oil prices more than anything currently.  It may be worthwhile to keep an eye on them.
This is a chart I created a few days ago.  A day is broken into 4  sections.  Early action usually till about 7.30 then from 7.30 to half way point 9.45 and later day 9.45 to 3.30 and closing .  I have marked on the chart as to what happened in each of these sections of the day as either a D for drop or R for rally.  So far the day that stands out as predictor is a D R D R ( Drop Rally Drop Rally) day which slightly implies the next day to be a big up or down day. I will collect some stats and see what it tells.  
I am expecting a R D R D day. I see a H&S with very small shoulders on either side from Fri closing and today's closing and a huge long head in the shape of an U in the middle of the day yesterday.  That also is a tell that we may be setting up for a surprise rally.  
I am not that bearish any more.
Thanks for reading my blog.

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