Monday, February 7, 2011

Signal isn't there!

SPX made a low of 1275 on Fri. 28th at 12.45  and that was the last time we saw that.  It rallied on Mon. and Tue. to 1308 at the closing.  Wed. was a flat day and Thursday morning after a quick drop to 1295 it has rallied into Fri. to close at 1310.  There really wasn't a hint of a pull back.  Yep! It ONLY did 35 points this week.  Like everyone else I have been calling and waiting for a top for a few weeks but it just isn't happening.  Egypt did not do any damage to the markets.  Now with some gimmick the unemployment is at 9.0%.  How we went from 9.4 to 9% with only 30K jobs is something I would never know.  One thing I know in California the foreclosures are being snapped up by Banks either the lending ones or other banks.  They are not going thru lengthy auction process.  Something positive is in the air in the segment.  With so many real estate agents not making money a super sales job may start this summer to get the housing market going.  I would keep an eye on it.  

This is TNA hourly.  The previous top is at 79.30.  The last three lows have been higher lows.  68.57; 69.20; and 72.47.  They all have relevance to previous highs.  This IMO is very positive.  Should we get a high high above the 79.30 TNA would be off to the races again.  The pull back in TNA was 10.73 or 39.28% close to Fib. 38.8% number.  If I understand peaks and troughs correctly TNA has put in a bottom at 68.57 and the next would a peak whenever  that is.
The chart is TNA daily.  It is on the median line and getting resistance but I am not convinced that it is strong enough to hold the rally.  The best way to see this chart is to magnify it and stand back and look at it. TNA is camouflaging a bigger size advance by nickles and dimes.  I remember what "they" said.  Oh! these ETFs are not holding but trading.  I can't see how applying a standard simple rule of 15% pull back  to sell and 15% rally to buy can hurt.  This chart is also bullish IMO.
I have read a lot of blogs this weekend.  May be I only read bear blogs or there just isn't that many bull blogs  the majority of what read were of the view that either a top has been formed or is about to form very shortly.  The usual stuff MACD, RSI, low volume and many ratios that are out of whack.  I can't say I disagree with the analysis but for me I have to see change in TNA price and I am not seeing it.

I am bearish for just tomorrow after that I am out of that camp and into the bullish camp until things change significantly.  say 30 points or more lower in SPX and a lower low in TNA.
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