Sunday, February 27, 2011

Now tomorrow is the day..

This is SPX on top and RUT in the bottom 15 min chart for the week.  SPX is down for the week. It was down on Tue.,WED.,Thu. and was up on Fri.  On a closing basis it as down 36.91 and on Fri it was up 13.78 that is 37.33% or 38 a Fib. number.  On a intra day Hi to low basis SPX is at the 50% point.  On a closing basis RUT is down and the counter rally is 63% or the golden ratio of 5/8.  All this is within the expected counter rallies.  I would be disappointed if the rally gets too far.  The biggest concern is RUT is so close (27 points) to all time high of 856.  If  RUT make a new high then  I will be bullish and not bearish.  

The chart on the right is TNA daily.  Pretty good fork at work.  The recent decline brought TNA to exactly to the median line. When a long candle comes exactly to one of these line and bounces IMO it means a lot of people are watching that line.  Technically such rallies don't hold and new decline goes below the line.  If  on the other hand the line is touched after a few days of small declines and TNA bounces from one of these lines then rally holds.  That is just my observation.  I have also marked the 285 days of first rally and the exact copy extension from the first top.  The second 285 day ends on June 9th.  My scale on the chart is in error.  The top value is at 110.  Should we get a severe drop the bottom is at 58 on the same date.  IMVHO we will have a pull back to 66 in the next 10 days and we will march towards 110.  That is my current view.
The chart on right is FAS daily.  It backed off after hitting the 75% point.  It made a low at the 55.9% point which is 
(100 - 44.1). and 44.1 is 1/2 of 88.2 Sylvanus' number. The 44 ; 56 ; 88 ; and 12 are proving out to be very important numbers.  The counter rally is in the small box extension. Here too 32.23 which is the 44.1%  number is important to watch.   The bottom line way I read these numbers    is we are having good counter but are not out of the woods by any count.  This rally will end and the decline should continue.  The obstacles are tomorrow is last ay of window dressing usually positive and Tuesday is first of the month a pension fund buying day.  I will watch little keenly. Any of these 2 fail and I will get a good confirmation of the down trend.  I am bearish and sweating it.
Thanks for reading my blog.

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