Pages

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Grinding..

SPX made a LH and a LL and closed in the negative That is negative for the markets.  Benny's quizzing was without any fanfare and boring.  The range was about 10 point and spx closed 62% of the range from the low.   Dow was up for the 8th day in a row.  My Dow daily data from yahoo starts only from 10/1/1928.  It has been up 8 straight days only 54 times and out of that it made it to the 9th straight day only for 25 times or 46% of the time.  The highest number of straight up days is 13 and that happened only once.  Now here is my thinking too many green candles to get very few points means one huge red candle to take away all those points. 
Today is the first day of red after 4 days of green in SPX  that is a negative for  the markets for when the red trend takes over ( when ever that is) it has to start with a red day.  


This is my hourly SPX.  Not much has changed since SPX first hit the top line of the channel.  This is grinding slower and slower until we come to an halt and turn back.  The more I look at it the more I am convinced we will come down.  Well we haven't gone up in the last three days.  Its like a rocket (sputnik may be) that spurts up keeps going higher and higher until it runs out of gas and gravity takes over. My eyes are on it.
This is my TNA hourly.  Here we can set some specific goals.  First the median line then the DOMA and finally the 25% and bottom line combo.  Should we go below 73.2 it will be good sell signal.  In TNA tops, what I noticed is the second high does not have to be lower than the first high to be a top.  As long as they are close its good.  In bottom the second low is almost always ( more than 85% probability)  higher than the first to be a bottom.  This is the one I am 1/4 short and watching a little more keenly.  RUT had an inside day closinfg in the negative and that is negative.
Couple of things large conglomerates like COKE, IBM  etc. make substantial amount of money in foreign countries.  As dollar is weak; they bring back larger number of dollars.  This doesn't mean they are selling a lot more units it is just that they bring in cheap dollar paper.  Second because of cheap dollar it may appear to foreign buyers that our securities doesn't cost them that much.   That is a twin edged sword.  For when the dollar gets stronger and the markets fall and they cash in and take their marks and euros back they will find it isn't that much second it has very little buying power.  Well good luck Chinamen.
Another thing I found if I hang out in places where majority are bears I become a bear  myself. I have made a point to get as much bullish info as I can to be more objective.

I am still bearish 
Thanks for reading my blog.

1 comment: