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Friday, February 25, 2011

3 red candles so far..

SPX did LH and LL and closed in the red that is negative for tomorrow and RUT did a LH and HL and closed in the positive. Yep it was an inside day with a plus closing that is bullish for tomorrow.  BY studying the chart from the decline it appears to me we did a 1 2 3 4 yesterday and did a 5 and start of an a of an abc of 2.  Sometime during the day tomorrow SPX should give us a b wave decline and it should come very close to the lows say 1297 or something and  that would be my signal to buy the bull side or TNA.  However I will not take any bullish trades home for the weekend for the market is in a down trend and unless we pass 1325 (approx. 1294.xx + 30)  I would short very surgically.  SPX did put on a good show today the range was 17 points It declined till 11.00 and then rallied almost 94% of the day's range and finally settled at 75% from the low.  
This is my daily SPX since July 1st low at 1010.  It got turned back at the 3x1 line.   A good decline will take it to 2x1 line at 1240 near 1227 which is previous high and is a good support.  A great decline would take it to the 1x1 line at 1130 which is also a previous high.  Anything less would be personally disappointing to me.  I have Gann emblem insert. Today is 180 degrees from Aug. 25th low at 1039 but it was not a phenomenal day.  Overall I am still bearish on SPX.  It will give a counter rally but as of now that wouldn't change the down trend. 
This is TNA daily.  The upward channel from March 09' low is very symmetrical.  In Sep.09' it got hit at the top median line of the top half of the red upward channel and found support at the lower line.  This time it got hit at the same median line but hasn't reached the support line yet.  Heck it has only been 3 days.  Also the fast upward blue channel  also provided support from the bottom line of the channel.  This support should give enough time for distribution to the end of the month window dressers.  After mid day or end of day Monday the abc of 2 should be complete and it should start next hit which would be a 3rd wave hit.  I expect that to take TNA down to 62 level.  Needless to say I am bearish but will trade the long side for the c of 2.  Not carrying any longs over the weekend though.
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