Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Missed chances?

SPX made a HH and HL and closed in the positive that is positive for the markets. It was kind of a cloud walk day.  SPX gapped up at the open made the low of the day just a few minutes before 7. After the real estate news it made the first high at 7.47 and then a quick pull back to of 68% of the range till then by 8.40. A  shallow rally followed that took it to the high of the day at 3.15.  SPX lost 38% of the range of the day by close. It closed at 1296 slightly above the intra day high from 19th.  The range was 9 points and the action was brisk.  RUT did similar.  

The chart on right is TNA hourly.  This channel has proved to be more effective than I thought.  I wasn't following it. I  was busy with Gann and missed a good chance at the low of TNA.  The decline stopped at 38% and at the bottom of the channel.  Now this counter rally should stop at the 12.5% around  75.9 and a new decline  should take TNA to 61.8% at 62.5.  Well I plan to watch this more keenly.
The chart on left is SPX 4 hour chart.  Actually the first bar is at 9 and second is at 1.00 close.  The Doma is 34 points.  While I was getting all exited about the decline from 1296 looking at this I notice it was nothing.  However it form a perfect parallelogram.  Should the decline start 1263; 1227 ; 1189 are not bad targets and final blow off to 44% at 1172 is O.K. by me.  First it hasn't started yet.
  Today was day 144 and big things were supposed to happen.  They sort of did but not with a big bang.  All the ingredients were there for a top. O calling the stock roaring; 144 day; EW count; Adjusted sq. of 9 at 1299;  Channels;  closing at high of day;  BUT the soup didn't come together.  I personally do not like push the expected top by nickel and dime every day.  If we do not get a decline from the 76 level in TNA I will change my tune and go long and very seriously switch the analysis to rally and decline levels (Fib. and Gann.) instead of graphs and trend line. 
I am still bearish.

Thanks for reading my blog.

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