Tuesday, January 11, 2011

It sure ain't going to follow me!

SPX made a HH and HL and closed in the positive that is positive for the markets.  In SPX the first high came a little after 8 and the second one a little after 10.  SPX just fell apart after that.  It lost all of the advance for the day in an hour Then a slow grinding rally lifted SPX to 68% of the decline.  RUT had only one top around 10 and followed SPX on a fast decline till 11.00. The rally only lifted it to 50% of decline.  An important point to note: Yesterday we had an inside day in SPX with negative closing and RUT with positive closing.Today both SPX and RUT were up more than 0.75 percent at some point.  I am making a conclusion on an inside day it is not the day before that matters but it is how the inside day closes that is worth following.  

The chart on the right is TNA since its high on 4th at 77.42.  The low was on 7th at 70.09.  With today's high TNA has rallied almost 88% of the decline.  That is a good point for it to start declining and it did.  The small problem I am having is that it is 7 days into decline and TNA is still within 2.6% of the top.  That is not how the declines work.  Any new higher high and I will have to abandon the 15 days of decline theory and move on. 
I have used TNA but the story is same on others.
I am still bearish may be for one more day of testing after that I will follow the market it sure ain't go to folow me.
Thanks for reading my blog

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