Pages

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Intoxication

SPX made a HH and HL and closed in the positive that is positive for the markets.  The high came at 9.30 and then SPX  drifted lower to about 32% of the range by 12.30.  A late in the day a rally put SPX within a point of the HOD.  In RUT the high came early at 9.00 and the decline was 44% of the range.  Late rally put it at at the highest closing just like SPX.  It was not walk in the cloud day.  Rally didn't shoot up early and stay there and rally even higher towards the close.  SpX is within 5 points of a high I projected a while ago at 1290. Yet today's action did not show any signs of slowing down.   
The chart on the right SPX hourly.  I have posted this many times.  I have been writing for a while about how the 185 hours of 1 (1010 to 1123) is likely to be duplicated in 5 (from 1174) and the top would come at end of it.  What I missed clearly was the size of the move 113 points. At a good top there is a high probability that this is also met. That point is 1287. Today's high is 1287.  Looking closely at the chart even though SPX has not traveled the full  2 channel width  like wave 1 did  it did make the 1.5 channels and backed off at the exact median line.  The last 0.5 channel is 26 points I am not sure if SPX needs to do that. This is good enough for me for It has met time and price.  Right Mr. Gann!
If SPX was close to top before it closer now. I will have to wait for the signals to go negative before I can short.  There were glimpses of that but they have turned and now I wait again.  
Clearly this market is intoxicated.  The most likely end to this nonsense would be a violent decline.  I am getting ready would jump when I get a chance to short.  
Thanks for reading my blog.
One more thing if you don't have anything good say best don't say it if you must be respectful. Thanks again.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Dino.
    Nice stuff sir.
    SPX - EOD System remain bullish.
    Close above both suportes short-term: 1272 and 1278.
    System remain long full position. If close below 1262 next sessions will reduce position 50%.
    If test 1297 system will close 15% position longs from 1206 because, this indicador alert overbought conditions good area to begin reduce risk.
    http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  2. I just point out is that a negative transaction.
    Why the opposite? The force (SPX) is with you.
    http://trading-end-of-day.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete