Thursday, January 6, 2011
Emplyment or un thats the ?
SPX made a HH and HL and closed in the negative. That is a negative for the markets. Why I say that is because I have seen LH and LL and positive close and markets go up the next day. This is opposite of that The HOD came at 7.40 (1278.17) the highest point since the rally started at 666 and the LOD came quickly after that at 8.10. Then a rally took SPX to 68% of the decline around 11.00. SPX then made an attempt to create a new LL that did not work it closed at 50% of the day's range. It was a good day for the traders. The range was still only 8 points. RUT made a HH and HL and closed in the negative. It did not make a new high. SPX and RUT are out of sync. The range on RUT was 8 points. The LOD came very late at 12.35 and counter rally made 32% of the day's range. It was a great day for traders.
This is my TNA 2 hour chart since the rally started at 31.17 on Aug. 24th. TNA has had one trade-able drop of 15% between Nov 5th and Nov 16th. Otherwise it has been straight up. Now there is turbulence. I have drawn a last two point trend line. The first sign of trouble will show when this line is broken The next test will be the 25% point 65.86. From previous blog there is channel support at around 64. If this also gives then next support will be around 60 previous top from 11/5. All previous tops now become support on the decline. The last stand would be the 50% point at 54.29. After that Ooops! its a long way let it first get close to it then I will see.
The chart on the right is also TNA and it is a 5 minute chart. It is to give me a focus on how far we have come from the recent top at 77.42. If we make a new high I will go long. HH to me always project new HH to come except once when the market tanks. I don't think a new HH is going to happen soon. Next 15 days should be decline. May be more. The chart tells me we are at 50% point. The way I look at it there was a decline from 77 to 70 a counter rally to 75 now a decline. This one should be harsher with newer lows.
Tomorrow is all important and most hyped unemployment figure. It is not the actual figure (correctly said it is a survey) but the interpretation of it that is important. SPX and RUT will tell me a lot more than any statistic.
I am bearish.
Thanks for reading my blog and offering me encouragement.