Sunday, January 2, 2011
Bears beginning to growl
SPX made a LH and LL and closed in the negative column that is negative. Range was almost 5 points. The low of the day came at 6.50 and high came around 9.30. SPX made 2 attempts to make new high but failed. Late window dressing and/or tax related selling sank the SPX and even with a reflex rally SPX still closed in the negative. RUT fared worse and the reflex rally did not produce any significant upside. The closing was negative and it is bearish for the markets
This chart on the left is my Batman chart. SPX hit the median line of the channel and the green line that is parallel to the decline from 2000 top to 2009 low. This is yet another block SPX has to over come to continue to be bullish. The second chart on the left is SPX weekly. I had mentioned 1257 for a possible top before. It is the bottom of 1 on the decline from 2007. SPX closed at 1257 Fri. It is riding the 2x3 line without a clear break. These are in my opinion signals of top.This is not forecasting the beginning of the end of the world type decline ( remember that is in 2012 Ha.. Ha..) but more evidence a pullback has started. The chart on left is TNA hourly. It has broken the DOMA 77 to the down side. The first stop should be around 70 and terminally it would fall to 64 at the bottom of the channel. The whole process should take about 15 days.
The last chart is FAS hourly. It appears to be popping out of the fast channel. And it too has crossed the DOMA 77. The first stop for this is at 26.25 and the final, close to 23. I will have see this a little more closely before I make a forcast that far out. This chart is not growling bear.
In my SPX hourly (chart next time)
EW 1 of 5 = 5 of 5 hours are at 180. SPX has done 166 hours another 14 hours will be completed in 2 days which is what I have been calling for a little while as a good spot for a top. Another sign SPX is approaching a top if it hasn't already made one.
I am feeling quite bearish.
Thanks for reading my blog and offering mr encouragement.