Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Whats the Rush?

SPX made a HH and HL  and closed in the plus   column that is positive. This is what I called for yesterday.  Range was pathetic 3.68 again.  It is not a DKOD today.  The high of the day came very late in the day. It opened at 2 pennies from hod and made low of the day very quickly a little later than 7 then a steady rally took it to high of the day ( by 2 pennies) around 12.30.  It lost 3/8th of the low to high range towards the close.  The range was only 3.68 the 3/8th is not much it is only 1.23. RUT had a tough time today.  It opened near the high of the day.  Reached the low of the day around 7. Barely made above yesterdays close during the rally from the low another negative sign. The rally was a little more than 60% of range of the day  and it lost 1/2 of that and closed at barely at 25% of the range.  The close was bearish. 

The chart on the left is TNA daily.  TNA is still on the median line.  It hasn't broken down.  The 84 day cycle seems to have held.  The chart on right is TNA hourly.  It is also hovering around the top line.  There is no breakdown below the DOMA.  Together it means no signal short for me.  While the movement was clearly negative none of my indicators were turned on for me to short.  
This chart on the left is FAS hourly.  The trend is still up.  Should we get a clear break in the channel my conclusions would be different. This tells me that the banks are still strong and I really doubt that we can have a market correction without the banks participating.  The interest rate situation got worse today.   20 yr did worse than 10 yr.  The rates rose on both.  Here is the issue I know this rise in interest in not a good thing by any account.  But the effects are never immediate.  The chart tells me we have a few more days to go.  My sense is we need to get a 48 font headline on news papers  before the market really takes  a hit. Something that will give a blow off top. 
I am content to wait.  End is really not that far. .
Needless to say I am bearish.

Thanks for reading my blog and offering me encouragement.

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