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Sunday, December 26, 2010

Waiting to sign in


SPX made a LH and LL  and closed in the minus  column that is negative. Range was only 4.50 points.  It gapped open down and topped out at 6.45 and then made low of the day by 11.30.  It then rallied a little over 60% but still closed the day in the negative.  RUT opened flat, made the high of the day by 6.45 and low of the day by 11.30 and had 50% of the range rally to close in the negative very near the low.  IMO thats not positive for the RUT.

The chart on the left is FAS hourly.  This has gone from the slow channel to a fast channel.  It made a low at the intersection of bottom of the fast channel and median line of the slow channel.  This happens a lot.  The median line of the fast channel intersects withe the top line of the slow channel near 29.5.  I would pay real close attention to it. The chart on the right is FAS Daily.  The 50% point is at 28.4.  The median line is a little over 29. Putting those together I would take a short  when it gets there to the median line.
The chart above is TNA daily.  The first decline was 84 days from high to low and on the 84th day from the low of 31.5 on 24th Aug. TNA made the high.  It has now been down for 2 days in a row.  These are flashing top signals. On the hourly SPX hourly it has spent 137 hours since the last low at 1173.  By comparing it to the length of wave 1 rally of 180 hours SPX has 42 hours to top.  Gann date is on DEC 31st.   Put it all together and what do we get very near the top. 
There are other indicators like put to call ratios, EW and Fib. ratios, MACD rolling over, etc. are all flashing top signals.  But I do not want to front run this shorting.  I am going to wait for my indicators DOMA, DMRM, 10/20 cross and SPX down 2% or more etc. before I jump in.  We are not getting there we are there just need to sign in.
I am bearish and will initiate trade shortly.
Thanks for reading my blog and offering me encouragement.

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