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Friday, December 17, 2010

Quadruple witching = nada day

SPX made a LH and LL  and closed in the positive.  SPX again  did the same thing two days ago the effect was negative the next day.  SPX did the LH and LL close positive 4 ays ago and the effect was positive.  The thing I noticed is it all depends on is the close near the high or low.  Close near the high next day is positive and close near the low next day negative.  Today's range was 11 points.  Today was first day positive.  IMO first day positive leads to 2 day positive and 3 day positive and so on.. 
SPX opened flat and made its low of the day of 1233 around 7 and rallied to high of 1244 at 11.  It then lost a little over 25% of low to high gain and a final rally to 1243 closed it  near the high.  I was impressed that SPX showed strength and did not fall apart.  SPX has recovered over 75% of the decline from 1247 to 1233 and that is bullish.  BY EW count SPX may still  get a smacked down as a final down but I am beginning to doubt it.  
The chart  on left is TNA hourly.  As mentioned before TNA is now riding on the top line of the channel.  A tiny pull back hit the 77 DOMA and TNA jumped right back to the top.  How convincingly it breaks the channel remain to be seen.  After the initial top TNA has given one false down signal.  I am yet to determine if this rally from 67.96 is good or not.  It is jumping after touching DOMA which is always positive.  I am not overy bearish yet.
The chart on right is FAS hourly and it is the most bothersome of all the ETFs.  Since Benny appeared on 60 minutes banks have not been rallying a whole lot.  FAS is very close to touching the 38% loss mark of the gain from 21.07 to 27.34.  It is close to the bottom of the channel.  If it doesn't rally here and instead  breaks own then that would be quite negative for the banks and the markets.  With everything else near the top some thing usually gives first and others follow.  Banks are flashing yellow light.
Tomorrow is OPEX quadruple witching hour.  I do not expect any moves at all.  It should be a  "lets watch the paint dry"  day.  Many watch dog agency will have their radar on the markets to catch any misbehavior.  Everyone will be at their best  conduct  like the way we drive when we spot a policeman. 
I am not bearish
Thanks for reading my blog an offering me encouragement.

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