Tuesday, December 7, 2010

All hourly

Today was an important day in the markets.  SPX made a HH and HL  and closed positive that is positive for the markets.  It opened gap up and reached the high of the day 1235 by 6.34 a.m.  Then it made a low at 9.20 and a high at 11.40 and it dropped off the cliff and quite steeply and closed within 50 cents of the low of the day. Reaching the high very early is a negative for SPX but closing near the low is very positive.  Tug of war.  Could be both sides would win.  Early morning low and a plus close would do it.  Worth watching.

The charts on the right is hourly spx.  It is pulling back but I am little reluctant to call the end here.  The 180 hours needed to complete the 5th is very incomplete.  The magnitude of the last rally is 50 points and I need to see 100 points like 1010 to 1130.  The closing looked forced.  I would call this the beginning of 2 of 5.  And I would say this decline should be contained to 1203  or so.  I will play this short but I would reverse very quickly and go long at 1203  Too early to short and stay. 
The chart on the right is FAS hourly and the chart on right bottom is FAZ hourly.  FAZ is on the median line and FAS is very close to 50% of the decline point.  This IMO is a pull back and an opportunity to buy.  I would forecast when the 2 from spx is over, banks and FAS would lead the rally.  FAZ IMO again is poised to go to the lower line of the down trending channel but not without a incy wincy rally.  I am not planning on shorting banks and going long on FAZ.  The darker brown channel was a dead cat bounce and it is over. 
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The chart on the left is TNA hourly.  Even a broken clock shows the time correctly twice a day.  I hit this one on the money today.  As expected  TNA went over to the green zone and got rejected by the top trend line.  It should come to the median line around 64 and take off again.  The DOMA 77 may also catch up to 64.  It is projecting a little lower point currently. 
The last one is TZA I will have to see decidedly above the DOMA before I can become a buyer of this.  I do not see that happening soon.  
Bottom line markets are pulling back and thats a good thing.  I will go long as soon as this short is over in a day or two. 
Thanks for reading my blog and offering me encouragement

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