Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Not enough time spent going down?

SPX made a LH and LL and closed in the negative that in itself is negative for the markets for tomorrow.  RUT also did the same.  SPX and RUT acted very similar today Very strongly opened lower and by 7 a.m. they were making lows of the day.  Slow and a grinding rally that spurted up around 11.30 and topped out for the day at 12.50 p.m. But both closed lower.  If one were to llok at the numbers only for the day and not the action they will see LH and LL and close in negative.  That is not very positive for tomorrow.  
 The chart on right is daily from March 09 low.  We are currently in a decline and this decline hasn't even given us a 12.5% or 1/8th decline.  I find it hard to fathom that we would not even get that.  That level is at 1157.  Last month's closing was at 1183.26.  Should we close below that this it would be first month after 2 positive months that spx close in red.  
The next chart is also daily spx I zoomed in from 1010 low.  1173 is 25% or 2/8th decline of the 217 point rally.  IMO spx is doing a little too much of this back and forth between the 1173 and 1200.  Sooner rather than later it will burst out of it.  Looking at the picture to me it appears that the decline hasn't spent enough time. It should get down to the 3/8th (compliment  of golden 5/8th) an that is at 1146.
The last of the spx chart is also daily and it is the rally from 1039 to 1227.  I would call this a C or a 3.  and current decline a 4 or 1.  Should spx break the 77 DOMA at 1146 that IMO would put this as 1.  The 50% point is at 1133.  It was my opinion before that we would go to this level and rally all the way to the close of the year as a 5.
Today's rally was IMO result of end of month window dressing.  But tomorrow is another story.  The two forces Tuesday opposite of Monday is positive and LH LL is negative.  I am leaning on the negative side. 
Thanks for visiting my blog and offering your encouragement.

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