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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

QE2 ! Why am I not surprised ?

SPX had intra day reversal with a LL and then a HH.  Often times it happens very close to end of rally or decline and currently it is negative for SPX.  RUT on the other hand only had a LH and LL which in itself is a negative sign.   After opening gap down TNA rallied to close the gap and hung around until 11.00 and then the big news came out. Fed is going to pump more money into the economy.  OK so what else is new. and TNA and stocks rallied a little sharply. Towards the end TNA lost momentum and lost a lot of ground but not enough to close in the negative.  It closed positive for the third day.  The three charts I have are for SPX.  The first is my weekly chart where SPX has crossed the red and the green resistance lines.  The black line is at 1193.  Once that is taken out there is really not much in terms of resistance for SPX.  It is possible that SPX turns around at that point after finishing 2.  The next is a daily chart.  SPX is above the 75% mark of the decline from 1220 to 1010.   One of the things I follow (thanks fellow CILer Sylvanus)  is 88% for a turn back and that is at 1195.  Many times stocks reverse at this point.  The last chart is hourly SPX.  The horizontal line at 1129 is previous high.  There is whole school of TAs who trade on horizontal lines rather than trend line.  K is a low point and L is a HIGH point.  If M is lower than K then one would short at new low. After M a second higher low if SPX  goes  above L then one would go long at new high above L.  It is a simple trading rule and works quite well.  Looking at all these charts to me it appears SPX is in the process of forming a top. Small or  big or intermediary is difficult to say but a pull back is due.  This is options expiration week and anything can happen.  Another important point is end of October portfolio window dressing is important. For many money managers it is end of fiscal year closing.  These can be volatile and opportunistic times.  and then there is big election.  No party wants to give up power so easily.  What better vehicle than a Stock market rally to spread some happy days are here again cheers.  These are a few positives for the coming days ahead.   I will be watching and playing my signals.  My bias for next few days is negative but unless we take out a major low I am not turning bearish. 

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