Sunday, October 31, 2010

I am watching camouflage rally!

September had a high probability of going down but the market was up.
October had high probability making a low of the year the market didn't.
Now we are in November which has a very high probability of closing higher I am very doubtful of that.  The whole month of September and October was spent to get the stock prices higher so they can be sold to the money managers for end of year window dressing.  Guess what it never happened.  Worst they were selling their winners such as Aapl.  
Now what?  The inventory has to be liquidated and liquidated quickly.  This leads me to believe there will be a fast and quick rally and then back to natural path which is down. I would personally watch and short the market as soon as I get a signal.  I do not like to pick a bottom and or a top thats why I wait for the signal. The chart on the left is spx hourly and modified Gann angles suggest we have topped.  On up trending channel it is not uncommon to for the SPX to rally to the mid line and fail.  IMO we have done that.  The chart on the right is SPX daily.  It has been 80 days since the low usually a end of the cycle top.  the up trend line is broken and modified Gann angles project a top.  These are all pull back signs.   I am bearish but will have to wait for the signal. 

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