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Sunday, October 17, 2010

Hazy

SPX made a HH and HL today which by itself is a positive for the mkts for tomorrow.  The range from hi to low was 14 points and spx closed 9 points higher from the low.  It closed in the positive.  RUT made a HH and HL but closed in the negative. It had a 12 point range and closed 3.5 points higher from the bottom. The action today was more than what I anticipated. 
The message from the charts is mixed.  Weekly and monthly charts haven't broken down at all and still solidly bullish.  The daily charts are getting flat.  Hourly charts have a bearish forecast from my point of view.  The TNA chart on the left is turning back from the low to high line and a second major parallel line. It has also triggered the 10/20 hourly sma cross to the down side.  This cross has not worked too well since the low on Aug. 24th. TNA has been going up (really..) any contrary signal has met with very little success.  None the less cross is a good signal if not on the down surely it has been great on the upside.  Once the market turns down which it will sooner than later many of of the indicators that or not creating profits will.  
The chart on the right is SPX hourly.  IMO it is clearly hit the low to high line from the low on 1st July.  While it has stepped out of the channel we may have seen the high and should a pull back.  The 1195 has not been satisfied and timing wise if the hit doesn't come very very shortly we will get into a bullish time for the markets historically.  That may be very difficult overcome for the bears.  
With bears and bulls in a tug of war I will just trade the points and not forecast until things are bit more clear. One more thing we did have a DKOD on Friday on the negative side.

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