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Sunday, September 26, 2010

Critical point

Last week spx closed at 1125.79. This week spx data is given below. 
 Date Open High Low Last Change % Change
09/24/20101,131.691,148.901,131.691,148.67+23.84+2.12%
09/23/20101,131.101,136.771,122.791,124.83-9.45-0.83%
09/22/20101,139.491,144.381,131.581,134.28-5.50-0.48%
09/21/20101,142.821,148.591,136.221,139.78-2.93-0.26%
09/20/20101,126.571,144.861,126.571,142.71+17.12+1.52%
There are couple of observation SPX did go below (1122.71)  and above (1148.9) last Friday's close (1125.79).   This below and above happens most of the times We have done 155 weeks of trading since the infamous top at 1576 only 29 times (18.7%) we did not do above and below close. How do I play this information If I had just gotten a week where we did not do a above and below I would argue the odds are in my favor over 81% that spx would make the next 4-5 weeks a normal week with above and below. Or conversely I can either go long or short at the end of Friday's closing and be right either way.  Well some thing to ponder.
The charts I have are same as last week plus a monthly and a longer term daily from the famous 666 low in Feb. 09'.  Together they give true meaning to the words long term and short term emphasis. Of all the charts I look at this chart on the left offers me the most information on long term.  Very simply when I magnify this chart and stand about 4 feet away from it I can not see any thing but bullish pattern.  The channels are from BL to TR that is an up trending line.  Within the big and small and the mini channels there is tops and bottoms but generally it is up up and away.  Until we take out a significant previous low like 1010 and head south like this chart implies the trend is up.  The monthly chart on the right is an important one. SPX is within a tight channel and within reach of 1062 the top line of the downward  trend line.  If that line is busted and we go above that will one more reason to be bullish. But this is a rally of 99 points after a 137 point decline on a monthly closing basis.  The 75% is at 1152.  Given that I wouldn't be too surprised if we got a short term jolt. The weekly chart on the left is something I play close attention to,  for Gann said weekly charts were of great value.  The red ,green and black trend lines are the three last lines of defense left for the down trend.  Once these are broken (if?) there isn't a whole lot of resistance coming from trend lines.  SPX will have to make a short term high come down and start going up before I can draw another trend line from a previous high.  Until then this is the last line in sand like they say so I watch it intensely. This could be the end of b wave after the a wave decline from 1220 to 1010. The daily chart on the right points to a potential short term top as well.  The top line of the up trending channel is at 1162.  There is a distinct possibility spx may take a turn at that point.  Finally I have the hourly chart.  This as short a short term picture I want to see.  This chart on the left is pointing to a very short term top as early as -- in the next day or so.  The black trend line the blue trend line and Gann 1x8 lines are all have a Starbucks meeting.  My belief is that this cause a short term decline.  The full moon was on the 23rd now it is the declining phase and the spx should decline with it.   Also the astro guys are very active calling for something big to happen in the next few days.  They haven't been very right lately but the market gives everyone their fifteen minute of fame.  All that points to a decline to start shortly.  I am guided by my indicators modified DMRM, D2PL and others.  I want to short and short soon but not without the indicators.

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