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Monday, August 23, 2010

A simple error can cause huge misrepresentation

SPX opened at 1073.36 and quickly reached 1081.4  at 6.52  and detoriated during the day to 1069.4  by 8.07. It then rallied to 1075.4 by 11.17 and closed at 1067.36.  The low of the day was at 1067.08 and high was 1081.4. It was a higher high and higher low day mildly bullish.  I ran a study some time ago on SPX closing within 50 cents from the low of the day and found 100% of the time there was an imminent rally to the upside.  Today is one such day and as such I expect a rally tomorrow.  Monday was down Tuesday has 66% probability of being an up day.  SPX has been down for 3 days in a row and could easily give a snap back rally.  The first 2 charts are TZA and TNA  hourly charts.  Upto 7 a.m is considered first hour and the next hours are at 8,9,10,11,12 and 1.  It shows the 10 point sma and the 20 point sma. The theory is same as death and golden mvg avg crosses when the faster one 10 sma crosses the 20 to the downside one shorts and when it crosses to the upside one goes long.  With a little tweaking for initiating a trade only when TNA/TZA  retests the mvg avgs the cross  works well.
The third chart in yellow is also hourly TNA with 10 and 20 point smas.  This is from Freestockcharts.  The 20 point sma is not calculated using the same methodology as the 10 point sma.  I would caution to check these mvg avg numbers with another source before using them.  Using the "correct" 10/20 cross from chart1 and chart2 look like the smas are about to cross.  That would also be positive for the markets.  I am bullish may be just for a couple days. 

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