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Monday, August 30, 2010

Russell 2000 to lead the way?


SPX opened today mildly down tp 1060 and then a half hearted rally to 1064 and it was down hill after that closing at almost low of the day at 1048.92.  TZA made early morning lows at 6.42 and re-visted the lows at 7.08 and never looked back. It closed at 38.30 3 pennies shy of high of the day.  My trend line from yester day held and spx did not make 1068.  How ever things for tomorrow are very different.  1.   Tomorrow is the last day of the month any left over window dressing should be completed tomorrow.  Thats positive and I would expect a rally sometime during the day.  2.  Today was an inside day and as such means it is pause.  Yesterday being a intra day reversal day to the plus side indicates it is a positive for the market.  3.  Today's close is near the low of the day within 50 cents implying a positive period shortly may be as early as tomorrow thats also a positive for the markets.  4.  There is the usual Tuesday being opposite of monday thats a positive for the market.  5.  TZA isat the upper end of the trend thats a positive for the market.  
1.  SPX closed below 1050 an important support level thats a negative.  2.  SPX got rejected near the 77 DOMA on the hourly thats a negative.
3.  Magellan summation index failed again to give any turn thats a negative for the market. 4.  Any move below 1043 would be below the 77 DOMA on the weekly that is quite negative.
Russell is negative either way.  If we do not get a lower low for the month below 587.67 then we will have an inside month and since last  month had a LH and LL the trend would still be down.  If we do go below 587.67 thats a lower low and lower high again and a continuation of down trend.  Unless we get a humongo rally and Russell closes above 650 its all bad for Russell. 
With equal number of positives and negatives I would not be surprised if the market satisfies both sides instead of none or one.  IMO we should get a rally followed by a decline by the end of day for we all should be getting ready for the dreaded September Halloween.   I think it is going to get a little scary here soon if not immediately.  I will again depend on DMRM for my trading.

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