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Sunday, August 22, 2010

High beta stocks can easily beat triple ETFs

This was one of the better weeks from a traders point of view.  After a mild down open on Monday mkt rallied to give DKOD on Monday.  It then rallied big and barely made above 1100 before it corrected to 1185 It made yet another attempt on Wednesday but didn't even make it to 1100 and kind of fell apart finally bottoming at 1064 on Friday.  TNA went from 34.37 to 39.68 and back down to 33.90 and closed at 35.48.  Of course options expired this week and that had a lot to do with the moves.  None the less these were very good moves for a trader. 
The chart on the left is FAS daily.  It is on a very important trend line.  It could not clear X it broke thru Y in a big way and now is hanging on to dear life on line Z.  IMO this line will be broken in a big way very shortly that is because I think this market is going completely break down very shortly and in a big way.  Very few blogs and people are talking about a collapse and the markets losing say 20% in one month.  The 2  small things in the way are AUG. 24th full moon ( generally a market top) and then AUG. 26th another important Gann date but not as big as July 26th.   The next chart is TNA which is making new lower lows.  That always means the trend is down.  The next chart is SPX for a rally from 1010 to 1123.  SPX has just went thru the 50% point of advance that is also negative.  The last is a decline from 1220 to 1010.  By going to 1123 we rallied a little over 50% and got turned around now bouncing from 25%.  When everything is at higher end of percentages and we make higher high one has to surmise it is positive if not immediately at least in the short to intermediary time frame.  Conversely when everything is hovering at the low end, Hindenburg is turned on and no one is posting a rip roaring earning and above all we are entering the month of September I am not very or even mildly bullish.  The markets are about to get hit and get hit hard.  Exact timing is near impossible but a close second can still make a decent amount of money.  I will continue to employ DMRM, 10/20 cross ( which is negative as of Thu.) , D2PL trendlines and DOMA77.  I have been experimenting with individual stocks with high beta that can be margined and had better yield last week than TNA.  Just something I tried last week. I am bearish  overall

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