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Sunday, July 18, 2010

Restart



It has been exactly one option expiration since I wrote my last blog.  Needless to say I got a little busy.  This option period that started on June 21st at 50.42 on a DKOD and ended at 36.26 on July 16th.  they have gone thru 50.4; 40.7 ; 44.4 ; 32.9 ; 37.2 ; 32.5 ; 42.6 ; 36.0 or approximately 10 down 5 up 12 down 5 up 5 down 10 up 6 down(so far). That adds up to 50.  In terms of percentage 20% down ; 10%up ; 25%down ; 13%up; 13%down ; 31%up; 16% down(so far).  This is just in 4 weeks.  With so much money available to be made I do not want to lost in calling a P3 or end of my U.S. or it is C or something and lose the opportunity to play either side.  My view there are really no bear or bull markets.  It is simply that markets go up and markets go down.  
Given all that how do I make some of it  knowing I will not make all of it.  
1. Doma crossing 60 min. 77 period doma.
2. DMRM wait for 3.4% on TNA move before jumping in
3. D2PL watch the last 2 lows (2nd higher than the first) and last 2 highs (second lower than first) for piercing.
4. DKOD
5. 50% retracements and Gann lines
6. D2IL special situation 2 identical lows
7. Close at low of the day 
8. H and L of today compared to yesterday
Trendlines and channels are very tough in my books are secondary and finally EW has the least weight. 
Where are we now.  DKOD negative to the market on Fri.  TNA has done 50% retracement  of last rally.  It is LH and LL on Fri. None of the other conditions apply.
 I am going to remain bearish but with a eye open to see if we get a DKOD on the plus side soon and TNA can do exactly the opposite (It is a rule that people follow) of june/july and make a low early in the morning on Monday.

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