Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Tighter stops Time

FAS opened up and gave a DMRM at 23.22 and drifted down to 22.60 at 7.00 am.  I got in at 22.71  the first high came at 23.62 at 10.00 and I sold my longs at 23.53.  FAS made its final low at 11.30 at 23.12 and took off and closed at the high at 24.44.  So I sold early.. Again..  SPX showed a similar pattern.  Both made HH and HL which is positive.  Today was 80 th trading day from feb 5th low.  If I were to take the trend has changed and the cycle low was the 1040 low then it is a 75 day cycle from low to low that doesn't fit with the rest of the cycles.  It is a rally of 60 points from the low I am not ready to call it a trend change yet.  On DMRM long side made the money today to me a trend change happens when long makes the money and the short signal doesn't.  The chart on the left is hourly ( data from FSC) the 38.% is at 1109 that is a good point to stop.  Previous top is at 1103 which also the point to cross on 1x2 line.  These are gann angles based on 1220 top to 1040 low as 1x1 line.  The chart on the right is daily SPX with Dino's parallel channels.  To form these I first draw line from hi to low and then equidistant parallel lines to form channel.  Todays close is sitting on sitting on top line of a the channel.  Not too positive to me.  Up sloping lines are parallel channels from march 666 to 1120 low.  I am not bullish and will play the short side with perhaps tighter stops.

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