Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Continuity and limit

Today's market action was very profitable.  FAS opened up and topped out rather quickly at 21.64 making me think that it was going to be a DKOD.  Nope FAS came down and made a low at 21 around 7.10 and took off and topped out for the day at 22.13 at 8.30.  7.15 to 7.30 is a critical time in the markets They tend to correct the excessiveness from the early morning.  I got in at 21.09 and 8.30 another pivotal time period FAS I got out at 22.03 as it topped out  The first down sloping line is my D2PL for a buy and the second is for a sell confirmation.  .The third time period that is critical is 11.30 with DMRM giving a signal I went short at 21.58 and covered just before the close of day at 20.53.  Even if I we get an early exuberance it has always been better for me to trade at 7.30 than 6.30 unless I am selling a heavy load that I carried home.  I wouldn't be doing that for a while after last time.  Ooosh.  
SPX behaved very tamely today.  It opened up and 8.30 it topped out at 1077.74 and had orderly decline inside a channel and started going out of the channel at 11.10 one last attempt to go up and then accelerated the decline from 11.30.  It was up 15 then down 22 a total of 37 point move not the 22 that the high minus low range suggests.  It made a HH and HL which is positive.  Up / Down volume and number of advancing/declining issues were even at EOD.  That is mildly positive.  Here is another opposite observation if the market declines after FED testifies it goes up the next day.  That is positive.  Number of issues above the 200 day moving avg. is down to 48%   It was at 87% on April 22.  That is kind of a quick reversal.  That tell me that half the issues just barely went above or touched the 200 MA and backed off .  Not very positive.  FAZ High 2 days ago was at 18.1 and today's low was at 15.75 and high at 17.12.  The rally from low to high ~58%.  To be a triple top it should starts its decline right here ( at best 17.20 for a 61.8%) and take the 15.75 out and start its march towards 14 and then to 12 and finally to 10.  In case we go above 17.50 I will drop the triple top case.
I am bullish and will play the bullish side on indicators with stops.
I will tweet my calls for few days see how it goes. Look for Dino_007 ( My Dino name was already taken)

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