Monday, May 10, 2010

When big is not big enough

On left is spx daily chart.  There are many versions of this chart that are floating around on the blogs.  Essentially how one draws these channels is arbitrary.  The me the two most important points are the last two points.  I joined the last two highs and drew a parallel line to pass thru the immediately previous low at 1044.5.  The half line is created by the software and seems to be a good support line for the previous rally from July 2009 low. I also made a channel that doubles the channel width.  The low of that is at 980.  On many occasions I found the channel that I see is only half the picture.  Now the last 2 days of trading if I throw out the canceled trades I see SPX kissed the lower band of the channel and rallied.  If this rally is to be contained then spx should hit the half line  and start going down and works its way to the lower half and hit a good size bottom at 980.  But this is all conjuncture and sounds quite plausible. 
  On right is a study I did to look at the exceptional opening days.  Today ranks as the third best day since Jan of 1987.  The most critical day is the next day tomorrow.  Good confirmation rally would put the down side to rest.  On an average it takes 5 days plus and spx advances 2.2% on the down side spx declines 5.5% and takes 8 days.  A majority of such big gap opens have occurred when SPX is already in a decline phase.  My conclusion is such humongous gap open rallies are really not all that bullish.  I only traded FAS once today for 33 cents.  The range was very small. I will be going with DMRM and DOMA for next day.  Tuesdays are opposite of Mondays. I am not very bullish

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