Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Shaky Situaion

These are FAS charts.  The one on left is 15 minutes with a DOMA 77 period and an envelope where the top is at 6% from mean and bottom is 3% from the mean.  First thing I notice is the top of the envelope is at twice the distance away from the mean as the bottom of the envelope is from mean. That tells me the trend is positive.  Sideways will be when they are both are approx. the same distance away from the mean and the if the trend was down then the lower channel would be farther away from
the mean. Uptrend is little shaky here I didn't short at the top.  My computer broke and I didn't have a chart to watch.  I shorted at 105.94 when the rally failed.  I shorted again at 104.21 when FAS went thru the DOMA.  My stop is at 3.2% progressive from the bottom.  There is a big difference between  the 103 top when FAS bounced at the mean at 96.9 and went to 100.9  and then came back and went down thru the mean again  to make a bottom at the lower end of envelope at 94.43.   This time FAS went right thru the mean and is bouncing up to the mean line.  The internals RSI, PPO recovered quite a bit.  The one big bothersome number is call to put ratio at 275+ and that is very high and negative.  Eliiot wave counts are inches away from finishing the 12345 ( or corrective ) rally  from 1044 bottom on spx.  All in all it is time to take money off the table.  I have a sense we might go lower than the lower line of the envelope. But my opinion probably reflects my position.  On the right is FAS 60 mins with DOMA 77 which is at 99.19.  That is an important chart for me.  It has a high probability of success on price crossing DOMA. My current view is "not bullish".   

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