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Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Are we there yet...


The chart on the left is daily spx from March 09 2009 till today.  I have drawn channels in the best fit I could.  1207 - 1125 number is being thrown around a lot as a possible top.  I am seeing resistance from the top line of the channel.  Some EW analysis also points to the same range for a top.  I do not subscribe to the art of picking a top even though it may be of utmost fun if you hit it.  I am not very good at it.  I put this chart up because a lot of people watch channels so it might be worthwhile to take a look.  
The chart on the right is also daily spx. 
It is from Feb 5th 2010 low at 1044.5.  Here it looks like spx has already broken the support trend line once 4 days ago.  Today the bottom was exactly on the trendline.  On the longer channel spx is hitting against resistance and the short term one we are about to break the support.  I do not trade channels. But I want to keep it in the peripheral vision. Bull ETFs did not make a new high and spx did not either,  instead we got a lower low.  One day doesn't make a trend change. But this is negative for the market.  Cycle watchers are calling for a cycle top in a day or two.  Ewers are calling for a top  very shortly.  The range has been very narrow and this is OPEX week.  Any time there could be a explosion either to the upside ( I favor this) or downside.  It is time to pay attention and watch our parameters DOMA, KOD, RSI and PPO.
I am still bullish and I will wait for the DMRM or a DOMA cross to short.

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