Wednesday, March 24, 2010

PIIGS do fly

Today started as any other day with some kind of a news break out. This time it was Portugal and the market had already reacted late night. The issue is the same they spent more money than they had ( kind of like us or US) and they could default on their loan. No one was coming forward to pay them another loan so they can pay the first loan. Every time this happens our US markets react almost the same way they drop and then rally. The degree of drop and the rally depends on at what point in the trend we are in. This morning as a situation play I bought FAS at 94.6x and later sold it at 96.93 . These are quick 2 1/4 dollars because of the situation. These are done with tight stop. Mine was at 94 Then there was B of A loan forgiving news. The FAS gave three chances to make money I took one and that is good enough for me. Portugal ,Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain exhibit their problems with no solution and as long as US is not directly involved it will make us money.

Today was an inside day (Today's High is less than yesterday's High and Today's Low is higher than Yesterday's Low) in S&P 500. Many people believe that the bull and bears were at tug of war all day and no one won. I think something big happens on these days. There was either shot term distribution in a narrow price range or accumulation by the floor. Knowing that March end of quarter window dressing is coming up and that there is an easy chance to sell ; my bet is that there was inventory accumulation. Nothing else is implying a trend change we will stay bullish.
Given today was inside day there is excell
ent chance tomorrow will be an out side day( Tomorrow's High is higher than today's High and Tomorrow's Low is lower than Today's Low) I would personally prefer the low come first and then the high so the trend can continue. My DMRR is at 1152. Anything lower would make me reconsider my current bullish view.


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